Analysis of Growth and Instability of Rice Production in Madhya Pradesh, India: A District Level Study

Rice is one of the important food crops cultivated in Madhya Pradesh state covering 4.55% rice area and 3.72% rice production of the country. Its contribution is very vital in agricultural growth of the country. But, yield of the state is less than the national average yield. So, for further improvement of its contribution in the agriculture sector of the country, it is essential to study the growth pattern of rice production in the state. Therefore the present study has been undertaken to examine the growth rate and instability in area, production and yield of rice in Madhya Pradesh state. The district-wise data on rice of Madhya Pradesh state was collected from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India and from the online sources of the state departments for the period 1992-93 to 2019-20. The data was divided into four periods for analysis. Compound annual growth rate and Cuddy-Della Valle Instability index have been computed for the four periods. The districts have been classified into five classes based on the classification of instability. These classes are very low instability, low instability, medium instability, high instability and very high instability. For the state, growth rate for area ranges from -0.80 to 4.23; for production ranges from 0.90 to 12.82 and for yield ranges from 1.31 to 8.24. The highest growth rate for area and production was observed in Hosangabad and Raisen districts respectively in period III; and for yield Datia district in period I. For the state instability ranges from 3.77 to 9.00 for area, 5.93 to 30.70 for production and 6.29 to 22.57 for yield. None of the districts were classified as very low instability for production and yield. Most of the districts recorded medium instability in period I, II and III for yield. The information about growth rate and instability may help the policy makers of Madhya Pradesh state to select the appropriate districts for enhancing the rice yield of the state.